Tur / Arhar supply shock — NE Karnataka: Kalaburagi-Bidar-Raichur (2026)

Event is active. Trigger: crop stress 60 >= 60 with basin deficit -19.2%

Metrics — at open vs latest

Metric	At open (2026-08-28)	Latest (2026-08-31)	Source
Season rainfall deviation	-17.5%	-19.3%	ERA5/Open-Meteo vs 1991-2020 normal
Historical percentile	23.6	20.8	rank among 1991-2020 seasons, same day-of-season
Crop supply-stress score	60/100	57/100	MonsoonMandi composite (see methodology)
Median modal price	7925 Rs/q	8250 Rs/q	Agmarknet via data.gov.in
Price change w/w	n/a	6.4%	Agmarknet via data.gov.in

Arrivals: not assessed — no free public arrivals source currently exists (state is recorded as missing, never estimated).

Season rainfall — cumulative vs normal

Reference-mandi price

Mandi	District	Modal (2026-08-31)
Raichur APMC	Raichur	Rs 9999
Aurad Shahajani APMC	Latur	Rs 8750
Lingasugur APMC	Raichur	Rs 8250
APMC Latur	Latur	Rs 8150
Aurad Shahajani APMC	Latur	Rs 8050
Raichur APMC	Raichur	Rs 7411

Assessment

observedRainfall (-19.3% in the most-stressed basin) and prices (+6.4% w/w) show no strong combined signal at present. Arrivals data is not yet available from a free source, so this check uses rainfall and price only.

Other producing basins for tur / arhar

Latur (MH): -18.0%

systemicAll 2 tracked producing basins are in deficit — potential multi-basin (systemic) supply stress rather than a local shock. Untracked buffers not assessed here: imports (Myanmar/East Africa) and buffer-stock releases are untracked.

Transmission lag

Estimated from 7 historical seasons: median 18 days to a sustained price response (range 7-47; confidence medium). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Historical analog seasons

In 0 of 1 comparable seasons with price data, Kalaburagi tur / arhar prices rose 10%+ within 12 weeks of this point in the season. Historical description, not a forecast.

Season	Similarity	Subsequent price move	Weeks to peak
1993	39.4	n/a	n/a
2014	39.3	1.4%	9.7
2005	38.6	n/a	n/a

Timeline

Date	Deviation	Stress	Median Rs/q
2026-08-28	-17.5%	60	7925
2026-08-29	-17.5%	60	8000
2026-08-30	-18.5%	59	8335
2026-08-31	-19.3%	57	8250

The "at open" snapshot is frozen and never rewritten by later data. Rainfall: ERA5 via Open-Meteo (CC-BY 4.0) vs 1991-2020 normals — not official IMD figures. Prices: Agmarknet via data.gov.in (GODL-India). This is a data record, not advice.