{"event":{"id":"tur-nek-shock-2026","crop":"tur","crop_name":"Tur / Arhar","basin":"nek","basin_name":"NE Karnataka: Kalaburagi-Bidar-Raichur","season":"sw","season_label":"SW monsoon 2026","start_date":"2026-08-28","status":"active","trigger_reasons":["crop stress 60 >= 60 with basin deficit -19.2%"],"initial":{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-17.5,"percentile":23.6,"stress":60,"price_median":7925,"price_wow_pct":null},"current":{"date":"2026-08-31","deviation_pct":-19.3,"percentile":20.8,"stress":57,"price_median":8250,"price_wow_pct":6.4},"timeline":[{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-17.5,"percentile":23.6,"stress":60,"price_median":7925,"price_wow_pct":null},{"date":"2026-08-29","deviation_pct":-17.5,"percentile":26.4,"stress":60,"price_median":8000,"price_wow_pct":null},{"date":"2026-08-30","deviation_pct":-18.5,"percentile":20.8,"stress":59,"price_median":8335,"price_wow_pct":10.4},{"date":"2026-08-31","deviation_pct":-19.3,"percentile":20.8,"stress":57,"price_median":8250,"price_wow_pct":6.4}]},"basin_series":{"days":["2026-06-01","2026-06-02","2026-06-03","2026-06-04","2026-06-05","2026-06-06","2026-06-07","2026-06-08","2026-06-09","2026-06-10","2026-06-11","2026-06-12","2026-06-13","2026-06-14","2026-06-15","2026-06-16","2026-06-17","2026-06-18","2026-06-19","2026-06-20","2026-06-21","2026-06-22","2026-06-23","2026-06-24","2026-06-25","2026-06-26","2026-06-27","2026-06-28","2026-06-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-01","2026-07-02","2026-07-03","2026-07-04","2026-07-05","2026-07-06","2026-07-07","2026-07-08","2026-07-09","2026-07-10","2026-07-11","2026-07-12","2026-07-13","2026-07-14","2026-07-15","2026-07-16","2026-07-17","2026-07-18","2026-07-19","2026-07-20","2026-07-21","2026-07-22","2026-07-23","2026-07-24","2026-07-25","2026-07-26","2026-07-27","2026-07-28","2026-07-29","2026-07-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-01","2026-08-02","2026-08-03","2026-08-04","2026-08-05","2026-08-06","2026-08-07","2026-08-08","2026-08-09","2026-08-10","2026-08-11","2026-08-12","2026-08-13","2026-08-14","2026-08-15","2026-08-16","2026-08-17","2026-08-18","2026-08-19","2026-08-20","2026-08-21","2026-08-22","2026-08-23","2026-08-24","2026-08-25","2026-08-26","2026-08-27","2026-08-28","2026-08-29","2026-08-30","2026-08-31"],"cum":[0.1,1.3,2.1,4.4,5.2,6.4,14.8,20.3,22.1,22.1,22.1,22.3,22.5,22.5,22.6,22.6,22.6,22.9,23.0,23.2,23.4,27.2,31.6,35.0,40.6,44.4,48.2,63.2,66.7,69.0,74.0,80.1,89.5,104.2,110.1,113.0,116.2,118.8,121.1,121.2,121.2,121.2,121.2,121.2,124.0,124.7,137.5,143.9,157.3,179.1,185.8,192.7,193.6,194.6,196.9,200.2,207.5,219.0,238.5,253.1,258.4,260.6,265.0,286.1,299.2,307.5,311.0,313.8,318.0,318.8,321.3,324.5,331.7,335.3,338.4,340.7,342.3,344.2,351.6,353.8,354.3,355.5,359.6,370.1,374.2,376.1,378.0,378.3,380.6,384.1,386.2,386.4],"normal_cum":[1.5,4.5,7.5,10.3,17.5,27.9,33.5,36.5,40.5,45.8,52.1,57.1,62.7,68.1,73.3,76.2,79.1,83.7,89.2,93.3,96.6,101.8,108.6,112.5,116.4,120.0,124.0,129.1,138.3,142.4,145.9,152.7,156.3,159.7,164.0,168.5,175.4,182.8,188.7,194.2,199.5,204.3,209.7,214.1,220.3,225.8,231.6,237.2,243.5,248.5,253.0,258.7,264.4,270.0,275.6,280.2,286.6,293.7,302.6,308.4,313.8,319.5,326.2,334.3,340.2,347.1,352.1,355.9,360.1,365.8,371.0,376.1,380.1,383.9,386.8,390.6,396.6,400.1,402.9,407.8,414.5,419.6,424.8,430.2,437.7,444.5,450.5,456.3,461.6,466.7,472.4,478.7],"analogs":{"driest":{"year":1997,"cum":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.9,2.5,5.1,5.5,7.5,11.0,16.2,19.9,33.5,39.3,50.7,50.8,50.8,50.9,55.7,58.2,59.7,60.7,70.1,70.5,70.7,71.0,71.2,71.3,72.1,77.0,80.1,96.6,130.1,149.7,154.7,159.1,160.4,163.6,165.9,167.9,168.1,168.8,169.7,170.8,170.8,171.1,172.2,172.3,173.0,173.0,173.1,173.1,174.2,174.2,176.0,179.5,183.3,187.8,188.7,190.5,193.7,222.1,225.5,225.7,225.9,226.3,228.1,229.3,230.3,231.8,233.1,233.5,233.7,235.9,236.4,238.3,239.5,240.0,240.3,241.1,241.2,243.7,248.8,253.1,253.4,253.6,253.9,258.8,260.0,262.6,262.6,262.6,262.6]},"wettest":{"year":2020,"cum":[7.9,22.0,24.5,26.0,26.2,26.4,27.2,27.3,27.3,39.6,74.2,79.8,83.8,87.3,90.3,113.1,123.1,129.3,133.0,134.5,137.2,141.2,141.7,142.5,149.6,154.5,162.9,173.5,184.2,191.9,197.0,201.0,206.1,218.8,236.6,238.9,243.1,251.2,257.0,264.1,266.5,267.9,270.4,286.6,314.3,321.9,330.4,335.1,341.3,349.6,353.9,356.2,372.2,383.1,390.9,391.9,394.1,404.5,412.8,414.5,419.8,421.9,428.0,435.5,443.3,469.9,474.4,476.3,481.2,486.8,503.0,505.4,507.9,529.3,538.7,561.3,588.5,598.1,602.7,614.8,634.6,645.6,647.1,648.6,649.9,650.6,650.9,653.2,654.1,656.7,658.1,658.4]}}},"price_series":[{"date":"2026-08-24","median_modal":7553,"n_mandis":15},{"date":"2026-08-25","median_modal":7751,"n_mandis":19},{"date":"2026-08-27","median_modal":8000,"n_mandis":16},{"date":"2026-08-28","median_modal":7925,"n_mandis":5},{"date":"2026-08-29","median_modal":8000,"n_mandis":19},{"date":"2026-08-30","median_modal":8335,"n_mandis":3},{"date":"2026-08-31","median_modal":8250,"n_mandis":6}],"sources":{"rainfall":"ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo; 1991-2020 normals (not official IMD figures)","prices":"Agmarknet via data.gov.in (GODL-India)","arrivals":"missing - no free public source"}}