Tomato supply shock — Kolar (KA) (2026)

Event is active. Trigger: season deviation -33.1% <= -25.0%; crop stress 69 >= 60 with basin deficit -33.1%

Metrics — at open vs latest

Metric	At open (2026-08-26)	Latest (2026-08-27)	Source
Season rainfall deviation	-32.5%	-33.1%	ERA5/Open-Meteo vs 1991-2020 normal
Historical percentile	17.7	15.3	rank among 1991-2020 seasons, same day-of-season
Crop supply-stress score	68/100	69/100	MonsoonMandi composite (see methodology)
Median modal price	n/a	1400 Rs/q	Agmarknet via data.gov.in
Price change w/w	n/a	n/a	Agmarknet via data.gov.in

Arrivals: not assessed — no free public arrivals source currently exists (state is recorded as missing, never estimated).

Season rainfall — cumulative vs normal

Reference-mandi price

Mandi	District	Modal (2026-08-27)
Madanapalli APMC	Annamayya	Rs 1800
Kalikiri APMC	Annamayya	Rs 1500
Palamaner APMC	Chittor	Rs 1500
Guramkonda Sub-yard of AMC Valmikipuram	Annamayya	Rs 1400
V. Kota Sub-yard of AMC Palamaneru	Chittor	Rs 1400
Valmikipuram APMC	Annamayya	Rs 1400

Assessment

insufficient evidenceRainfall shows -33.1% season-to-date in the most-stressed basin, but the price panel is too shallow to assess whether this is translating into price pressure. Arrivals data is not yet available from a free source, so this check uses rainfall and price only.

Other producing basins for tomato

Chittoor-Annamayya (AP): -9.6%, Nashik belt (MH): 6.3%

localizedStress is localized: Kolar (KA) (-33.1%) in deficit while Chittoor-Annamayya (AP), Nashik belt (MH) sit near or above normal — less-stressed regions may partly offset, based on available evidence. Untracked buffers not assessed here: Madhya Pradesh and hill-state summer tomato are untracked buffers.

Transmission lag

Estimated from 16 historical seasons: median 4 days to a sustained price response (range 1-10; confidence high). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Historical analog seasons

In 0 of 1 comparable seasons with price data, Kolar tomato prices rose 10%+ within 12 weeks of this point in the season. Historical description, not a forecast.

Season	Similarity	Subsequent price move	Weeks to peak
2001	42.1	n/a	n/a
2012	40.9	8.2%	0.1
2003	40.1	n/a	n/a

Timeline

Date	Deviation	Stress	Median Rs/q
2026-08-26	-32.5%	69	1500
2026-08-27	-33.1%	69	1400

The "at open" snapshot is frozen and never rewritten by later data. Rainfall: ERA5 via Open-Meteo (CC-BY 4.0) vs 1991-2020 normals — not official IMD figures. Prices: Agmarknet via data.gov.in (GODL-India). This is a data record, not advice.