{"event":{"id":"tomato-kolar-shock-2026","crop":"tomato","crop_name":"Tomato","basin":"kolar","basin_name":"Kolar (KA)","start_date":"2026-08-26","status":"active","trigger_reasons":["season deviation -33.1% <= -25.0%","crop stress 69 >= 60 with basin deficit -33.1%"],"initial":{"date":"2026-08-26","deviation_pct":-32.5,"percentile":17.7,"stress":68,"price_wow_pct":null},"current":{"date":"2026-08-27","deviation_pct":-33.1,"percentile":15.3,"stress":69,"price_median":1400,"price_wow_pct":null},"timeline":[{"date":"2026-08-26","deviation_pct":-32.5,"percentile":15.3,"stress":69,"price_median":1500,"price_wow_pct":null},{"date":"2026-08-27","deviation_pct":-33.1,"percentile":15.3,"stress":69,"price_median":1400,"price_wow_pct":null}]},"basin_series":{"days":["2026-06-01","2026-06-02","2026-06-03","2026-06-04","2026-06-05","2026-06-06","2026-06-07","2026-06-08","2026-06-09","2026-06-10","2026-06-11","2026-06-12","2026-06-13","2026-06-14","2026-06-15","2026-06-16","2026-06-17","2026-06-18","2026-06-19","2026-06-20","2026-06-21","2026-06-22","2026-06-23","2026-06-24","2026-06-25","2026-06-26","2026-06-27","2026-06-28","2026-06-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-01","2026-07-02","2026-07-03","2026-07-04","2026-07-05","2026-07-06","2026-07-07","2026-07-08","2026-07-09","2026-07-10","2026-07-11","2026-07-12","2026-07-13","2026-07-14","2026-07-15","2026-07-16","2026-07-17","2026-07-18","2026-07-19","2026-07-20","2026-07-21","2026-07-22","2026-07-23","2026-07-24","2026-07-25","2026-07-26","2026-07-27","2026-07-28","2026-07-29","2026-07-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-01","2026-08-02","2026-08-03","2026-08-04","2026-08-05","2026-08-06","2026-08-07","2026-08-08","2026-08-09","2026-08-10","2026-08-11","2026-08-12","2026-08-13","2026-08-14","2026-08-15","2026-08-16","2026-08-17","2026-08-18","2026-08-19","2026-08-20","2026-08-21","2026-08-22","2026-08-23","2026-08-24","2026-08-25","2026-08-26","2026-08-27"],"cum":[0.5,2.4,4.6,4.8,7.4,8.8,9.9,10.3,11.7,12.5,13.0,15.3,17.7,18.1,18.1,18.6,19.3,21.6,23.1,26.9,30.7,35.0,35.1,37.6,40.5,43.2,53.6,56.0,63.0,64.2,64.4,65.5,66.4,66.6,67.0,67.0,67.5,68.5,68.5,73.2,73.2,73.2,73.2,73.2,73.2,73.2,75.5,75.9,76.2,79.8,81.2,85.8,85.9,86.6,90.9,92.8,93.2,94.5,96.2,96.9,98.5,102.7,103.7,106.4,113.5,122.0,125.3,135.3,138.3,139.2,142.1,143.0,143.9,144.8,145.4,145.7,146.0,146.4,148.0,151.1,153.8,156.6,158.2,162.4,168.1,170.7,172.4,172.9],"normal_cum":[5.6,11.3,16.0,20.5,27.0,31.3,35.6,38.6,41.2,43.9,47.3,50.2,55.3,59.5,61.3,63.5,66.3,68.3,70.3,71.7,73.9,76.2,77.8,78.7,80.4,81.9,83.3,85.9,88.5,90.5,94.0,96.2,98.3,99.9,102.5,105.1,107.8,109.8,113.2,116.0,118.6,120.5,122.5,125.0,128.6,134.2,136.8,141.0,144.2,146.7,149.7,152.6,155.0,157.0,160.3,163.2,166.7,169.2,171.7,174.0,177.3,179.2,181.5,184.5,187.3,189.9,192.3,193.8,195.3,197.1,199.6,202.7,205.3,207.1,209.3,212.6,216.1,220.3,223.1,225.8,229.0,233.7,238.3,242.4,247.5,253.0,256.1,258.6],"analogs":{"driest":{"year":1994,"cum":[2.9,3.2,3.2,3.3,4.5,6.7,14.6,17.9,20.1,20.3,21.2,28.9,32.9,33.9,33.9,33.9,34.2,34.2,34.4,34.5,34.5,34.5,34.5,34.6,36.6,38.0,38.0,38.2,39.2,39.8,42.1,52.7,55.4,56.5,59.0,61.1,65.8,66.3,66.3,66.8,66.9,71.5,72.0,73.1,73.4,73.4,73.4,73.4,73.4,73.6,73.6,73.8,74.8,75.2,75.4,75.6,81.0,81.3,82.5,82.8,82.8,83.0,83.3,83.4,83.4,83.5,83.5,83.5,83.5,83.5,83.5,85.5,86.2,89.7,91.4,93.3,94.0,94.1,94.5,94.8,94.8,108.9,116.8,117.6,117.6,119.4,119.7,119.7]},"wettest":{"year":1996,"cum":[0.4,8.5,13.5,13.8,26.3,39.6,49.6,59.5,92.9,120.7,124.6,129.2,171.5,257.4,261.6,269.4,275.5,281.2,288.5,292.7,294.1,294.5,294.6,294.7,294.7,294.7,294.7,294.7,294.7,294.7,294.7,294.7,294.7,294.7,295.2,300.8,306.0,313.0,325.6,333.6,337.1,339.6,342.4,344.1,345.7,349.0,352.4,356.2,356.8,357.5,359.7,365.2,368.9,369.9,370.2,370.4,370.5,370.5,374.2,374.2,374.3,374.3,374.3,374.4,374.9,375.0,375.0,378.6,378.8,378.8,379.0,387.6,393.0,393.6,394.1,394.3,397.9,402.8,406.7,419.5,420.6,429.2,447.8,474.5,488.0,499.3,501.5,501.5]}}},"price_series":[{"date":"2026-08-24","median_modal":1200,"n_mandis":13},{"date":"2026-08-25","median_modal":1300,"n_mandis":13},{"date":"2026-08-26","median_modal":1500,"n_mandis":7},{"date":"2026-08-27","median_modal":1400,"n_mandis":10}],"sources":{"rainfall":"ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo; 1991-2020 normals (not official IMD figures)","prices":"Agmarknet via data.gov.in (GODL-India)","arrivals":"missing - no free public source"}}