Onion supply shock — Malwa: Indore-Ujjain-Dewas (MP) (2026)

Event is active. Trigger: crop stress 61 >= 60 with basin deficit -17.2%

Metrics — at open vs latest

Metric	At open (2026-08-26)	Latest (2026-08-31)	Source
Season rainfall deviation	-13.0%	-17.2%	ERA5/Open-Meteo vs 1991-2020 normal
Historical percentile	40.3	29.2	rank among 1991-2020 seasons, same day-of-season
Crop supply-stress score	64/100	61/100	MonsoonMandi composite (see methodology)
Median modal price	n/a	3800 Rs/q	Agmarknet via data.gov.in
Price change w/w	n/a	-3.2%	Agmarknet via data.gov.in

Arrivals: not assessed — no free public arrivals source currently exists (state is recorded as missing, never estimated).

Season rainfall — cumulative vs normal

Reference-mandi price

Mandi	District	Modal (2026-08-31)
Pimpalgaon Baswant APMC	Nashik	Rs 4250
Dindori(Vani) APMC	Nashik	Rs 4151
AGRICULTURE PRODUCE MARKET COMITEE CHANDWAD	Nashik	Rs 4050
Yeola APMC	Nashik	Rs 4000
Lasalgaon(Vinchur) APMC	Nashik	Rs 3900
Pimpalgaon Baswant(Saykheda) APMC	Nashik	Rs 3850

Assessment

possibleOne basin shows stress (-33.6%) while another is near normal (3.2%) and prices are steady (-3.2% w/w) — less-stressed producing regions may be absorbing localized supply stress. Arrivals data is not yet available from a free source, so this check uses rainfall and price only.

Other producing basins for onion

Nashik belt (MH): 3.2%, Kurnool (AP): -33.6%

localizedStress is localized: Kurnool (AP) (-33.6%), Malwa: Indore-Ujjain-Dewas (MP) (-17.2%) in deficit while Nashik belt (MH) sit near or above normal — less-stressed regions may partly offset, based on available evidence. Untracked buffers not assessed here: Gujarat (Bhavnagar) and stored rabi stock also buffer onion supply; not tracked.

Transmission lag

Estimated from 15 historical seasons: median 10 days to a sustained price response (range 1-26; confidence medium). Descriptive, not a forecast.

Historical analog seasons

In 0 of 1 comparable seasons with price data, Kurnool onion prices rose 10%+ within 12 weeks of this point in the season. Historical description, not a forecast.

Season	Similarity	Subsequent price move	Weeks to peak
2018	40.0	0.0%	0.3
2001	34.9	n/a	n/a
1993	33.1	n/a	n/a

Timeline

Date	Deviation	Stress	Median Rs/q
2026-08-26	-13.0%	65	4100
2026-08-27	-13.2%	65	3689
2026-08-28	-14.0%	65	3349
2026-08-29	-15.3%	68	3701
2026-08-30	-16.4%	69	3701
2026-08-31	-17.2%	61	3800

The "at open" snapshot is frozen and never rewritten by later data. Rainfall: ERA5 via Open-Meteo (CC-BY 4.0) vs 1991-2020 normals — not official IMD figures. Prices: Agmarknet via data.gov.in (GODL-India). This is a data record, not advice.