{"event":{"id":"tur-latur-shock-2026","crop":"tur","crop_name":"Tur / Arhar","basin":"latur","basin_name":"Latur (MH)","season":"sw","season_label":"SW monsoon 2026","start_date":"2026-08-28","status":"active","trigger_reasons":["crop stress 60 >= 60 with basin deficit -17.9%"],"initial":{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-15.3,"percentile":29.2,"stress":60,"price_median":7925,"price_wow_pct":null},"current":{"date":"2026-08-31","deviation_pct":-18.0,"percentile":20.8,"stress":57,"price_median":8250,"price_wow_pct":6.4},"timeline":[{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-15.3,"percentile":29.2,"stress":60,"price_median":7925,"price_wow_pct":null},{"date":"2026-08-29","deviation_pct":-16.2,"percentile":29.2,"stress":60,"price_median":8000,"price_wow_pct":null},{"date":"2026-08-30","deviation_pct":-16.8,"percentile":23.6,"stress":59,"price_median":8335,"price_wow_pct":10.4},{"date":"2026-08-31","deviation_pct":-18.0,"percentile":20.8,"stress":57,"price_median":8250,"price_wow_pct":6.4}]},"basin_series":{"days":["2026-06-01","2026-06-02","2026-06-03","2026-06-04","2026-06-05","2026-06-06","2026-06-07","2026-06-08","2026-06-09","2026-06-10","2026-06-11","2026-06-12","2026-06-13","2026-06-14","2026-06-15","2026-06-16","2026-06-17","2026-06-18","2026-06-19","2026-06-20","2026-06-21","2026-06-22","2026-06-23","2026-06-24","2026-06-25","2026-06-26","2026-06-27","2026-06-28","2026-06-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-01","2026-07-02","2026-07-03","2026-07-04","2026-07-05","2026-07-06","2026-07-07","2026-07-08","2026-07-09","2026-07-10","2026-07-11","2026-07-12","2026-07-13","2026-07-14","2026-07-15","2026-07-16","2026-07-17","2026-07-18","2026-07-19","2026-07-20","2026-07-21","2026-07-22","2026-07-23","2026-07-24","2026-07-25","2026-07-26","2026-07-27","2026-07-28","2026-07-29","2026-07-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-01","2026-08-02","2026-08-03","2026-08-04","2026-08-05","2026-08-06","2026-08-07","2026-08-08","2026-08-09","2026-08-10","2026-08-11","2026-08-12","2026-08-13","2026-08-14","2026-08-15","2026-08-16","2026-08-17","2026-08-18","2026-08-19","2026-08-20","2026-08-21","2026-08-22","2026-08-23","2026-08-24","2026-08-25","2026-08-26","2026-08-27","2026-08-28","2026-08-29","2026-08-30","2026-08-31"],"cum":[1.3,1.5,2.0,2.6,2.9,6.6,6.8,10.4,12.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.6,12.6,12.9,13.0,13.0,13.0,13.6,14.0,15.1,16.9,25.6,28.8,37.2,40.6,45.8,54.1,59.4,64.5,71.4,74.2,79.4,92.6,104.8,117.6,128.6,134.0,134.6,135.1,135.3,135.3,135.3,135.3,138.1,151.3,156.1,165.1,183.0,195.7,206.2,216.1,217.5,218.9,222.8,235.8,243.9,255.1,283.7,313.3,336.0,337.1,342.1,353.9,360.9,364.2,370.7,373.2,375.0,375.7,377.7,385.2,391.4,395.6,398.4,401.8,402.6,404.0,408.2,412.2,412.9,413.0,417.9,427.1,428.6,436.0,437.8,438.4,439.8,441.0,441.7,442.4],"normal_cum":[1.0,3.1,5.5,8.2,11.0,15.5,22.6,27.1,33.2,41.0,46.3,52.5,58.9,64.6,72.5,77.4,80.9,86.4,93.7,103.9,107.4,114.1,120.7,124.7,132.0,137.8,140.6,145.5,152.2,157.7,161.3,167.3,171.9,178.2,182.3,186.9,193.0,201.9,208.1,214.6,227.7,233.4,240.2,244.7,250.6,257.1,263.9,268.8,275.8,282.7,287.8,293.8,300.5,306.2,312.3,319.8,328.1,336.9,346.9,355.5,362.1,368.4,375.2,381.6,388.1,397.7,405.4,411.5,416.8,421.6,426.8,431.5,434.9,438.8,442.2,446.3,452.1,456.7,458.7,464.1,474.0,479.3,484.7,490.9,497.0,502.4,508.0,513.7,519.1,526.2,531.1,539.3],"analogs":{"driest":{"year":1997,"cum":[0.1,0.1,0.1,0.8,2.1,2.5,3.1,5.2,6.7,8.2,8.8,17.1,29.6,34.6,34.6,34.6,34.6,38.5,46.9,60.4,63.4,71.7,72.0,72.9,73.4,73.6,74.0,76.2,81.9,83.9,90.8,111.4,121.8,128.8,137.1,138.2,140.4,144.1,149.3,149.4,151.6,151.8,152.7,153.1,154.4,155.4,155.5,156.8,156.8,156.8,156.8,156.9,156.9,157.1,170.4,187.2,190.6,192.9,193.8,195.1,239.9,240.8,241.2,241.4,241.9,243.0,245.3,246.3,247.5,248.2,248.2,248.4,250.3,251.6,257.9,264.1,264.4,265.1,265.8,265.9,276.1,280.4,293.4,294.8,295.0,296.5,305.3,305.9,306.1,306.2,306.2,306.2]},"wettest":{"year":2013,"cum":[0.1,6.4,19.8,26.4,30.4,35.0,56.0,62.8,73.4,81.2,88.5,91.8,99.2,115.3,135.0,148.2,150.8,159.6,172.8,176.4,180.6,186.6,186.7,206.8,224.2,224.3,224.7,226.3,227.0,230.4,231.8,237.8,240.0,240.8,241.9,243.9,252.8,260.2,261.8,267.8,290.2,319.3,319.8,324.6,327.2,377.4,417.6,423.5,456.2,463.3,475.5,506.9,564.5,567.5,570.0,578.8,580.2,581.9,582.6,599.8,638.4,673.3,702.7,702.9,707.1,711.3,714.8,715.3,715.7,716.5,719.0,720.1,721.2,731.8,739.2,740.1,740.9,750.0,756.2,756.2,756.9,757.9,760.9,764.5,770.1,771.4,775.1,776.0,776.2,776.2,776.6,776.6]}}},"price_series":[{"date":"2026-08-24","median_modal":7553,"n_mandis":15},{"date":"2026-08-25","median_modal":7751,"n_mandis":19},{"date":"2026-08-27","median_modal":8000,"n_mandis":16},{"date":"2026-08-28","median_modal":7925,"n_mandis":5},{"date":"2026-08-29","median_modal":8000,"n_mandis":19},{"date":"2026-08-30","median_modal":8335,"n_mandis":3},{"date":"2026-08-31","median_modal":8250,"n_mandis":6}],"sources":{"rainfall":"ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo; 1991-2020 normals (not official IMD figures)","prices":"Agmarknet via data.gov.in (GODL-India)","arrivals":"missing - no free public source"}}