{"generated_at":"2026-08-28T21:53:33","season":"SW monsoon 2026","rain_basis":"ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo (1991-2020 normals). Not official IMD figures.","price_basis":"Agmarknet via data.gov.in - modal wholesale price, Rs/quintal.","collecting_since":"2026-08-24","build":{"code_commit":"ea1e6d5","config_hash":"b09c2ecea0"},"sources_meta":{"open_meteo":{"name":"Open-Meteo (ERA5 reanalysis)","url":"https://open-meteo.com/","license":"CC-BY 4.0","attribution_required":true,"redistribution_notes":"Free for non-commercial and commercial use with attribution; derived aggregates redistributable."},"agmarknet_datagovin":{"name":"Agmarknet daily mandi prices via data.gov.in","url":"https://www.data.gov.in/catalog/current-daily-price-various-commodities-various-markets-mandi","license":"GODL-India","attribution_required":true,"redistribution_notes":"Government Open Data License India: free reuse with attribution to the data provider."},"agmarknet_variety_wise":{"name":"Agmarknet variety-wise daily prices (historical) via data.gov.in","url":"https://www.data.gov.in/","license":"GODL-India","attribution_required":true,"redistribution_notes":"Used for the one-time multi-year backfill; aggregated to district-day medians."},"imd":{"name":"India Meteorological Department","url":"https://mausam.imd.gov.in/","license":"not integrated","attribution_required":true,"redistribution_notes":"API requires a key with no documented public issuance path; not used in v1. Official figures referenced only for sanity checks."}},"national":{"basin_weighted_deviation_pct":-11.2,"n_basins":9,"worst":"kolar","best":"hooghly","active_events":6,"index":{"name":"India Crop Supply Stress Index","value":56,"label":"Moderate","crops_included":["onion","potato","soyabean","tomato","tur"],"weights":{"onion":0.25,"potato":0.15,"soyabean":0.15,"tomato":0.25,"tur":0.2},"note":"weighted average of crop supply-stress scores; NOT a CPI forecast"}},"basins":{"nashik":{"name":"Nashik belt (MH)","season":"sw","season_label":"SW monsoon 2026","season_start_md":[6,1],"confidence":0.9,"methodology_sources":["Lasalgaon/Pimpalgaon are India's benchmark onion markets (NHRDF, APMC arrival records)","district hosts the densest onion mandi cluster in 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dept)"],"season_to_date_mm":439.8,"normal_to_date_mm":519.1,"deviation_pct":-15.3,"rolling":{"d7":-32.7,"d14":-46.2,"d30":-9.3},"percentile":29.2,"persistence_30d":66.7,"dry_streak_days":3,"forecast_7d_mm":8.9,"normal_next7_mm":43.3,"forecast_trajectory":"deteriorating","days":["2026-06-01","2026-06-02","2026-06-03","2026-06-04","2026-06-05","2026-06-06","2026-06-07","2026-06-08","2026-06-09","2026-06-10","2026-06-11","2026-06-12","2026-06-13","2026-06-14","2026-06-15","2026-06-16","2026-06-17","2026-06-18","2026-06-19","2026-06-20","2026-06-21","2026-06-22","2026-06-23","2026-06-24","2026-06-25","2026-06-26","2026-06-27","2026-06-28","2026-06-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-01","2026-07-02","2026-07-03","2026-07-04","2026-07-05","2026-07-06","2026-07-07","2026-07-08","2026-07-09","2026-07-10","2026-07-11","2026-07-12","2026-07-13","2026-07-14","2026-07-15","2026-07-16","2026-07-17","2026-07-18","2026-07-19","2026-07-20","2026-07-21","2026-07-22","2026-07-23","2026-07-24","2026-07-25","2026-07-26","2026-07-27","2026-07-28","2026-07-29","2026-07-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-01","2026-08-02","2026-08-03","2026-08-04","2026-08-05","2026-08-06","2026-08-07","2026-08-08","2026-08-09","2026-08-10","2026-08-11","2026-08-12","2026-08-13","2026-08-14","2026-08-15","2026-08-16","2026-08-17","2026-08-18","2026-08-19","2026-08-20","2026-08-21","2026-08-22","2026-08-23","2026-08-24","2026-08-25","2026-08-26","2026-08-27","2026-08-28"],"cum":[1.3,1.5,2.0,2.6,2.9,6.6,6.8,10.4,12.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.6,12.6,12.9,13.0,13.0,13.0,13.6,14.0,15.1,16.9,25.6,28.8,37.2,40.6,45.8,54.1,59.4,64.5,71.4,74.2,79.4,92.6,104.8,117.6,128.6,134.0,134.6,135.1,135.3,135.3,135.3,135.3,138.1,151.3,156.1,165.1,183.0,195.7,206.2,216.1,217.5,218.9,222.8,235.8,243.9,255.1,283.7,313.3,336.0,337.1,342.1,353.9,360.9,364.2,370.7,373.2,375.0,375.7,377.7,385.2,391.4,395.6,398.4,401.8,402.6,404.0,408.2,412.2,412.9,413.0,417.9,427.1,428.6,436.0,437.8,438.4,439.8],"normal_cum":[1.0,3.1,5.5,8.2,11.0,15.5,22.6,27.1,33.2,41.0,46.3,52.5,58.9,64.6,72.5,77.4,80.9,86.4,93.7,103.9,107.4,114.1,120.7,124.7,132.0,137.8,140.6,145.5,152.2,157.7,161.3,167.3,171.9,178.2,182.3,186.9,193.0,201.9,208.1,214.6,227.7,233.4,240.2,244.7,250.6,257.1,263.9,268.8,275.8,282.7,287.8,293.8,300.5,306.2,312.3,319.8,328.1,336.9,346.9,355.5,362.1,368.4,375.2,381.6,388.1,397.7,405.4,411.5,416.8,421.6,426.8,431.5,434.9,438.8,442.2,446.3,452.1,456.7,458.7,464.1,474.0,479.3,484.7,490.9,497.0,502.4,508.0,513.7,519.1],"season_total_normal":677.6,"analogs":{"driest":{"year":1997,"cum":[0.1,0.1,0.1,0.8,2.1,2.5,3.1,5.2,6.7,8.2,8.8,17.1,29.6,34.6,34.6,34.6,34.6,38.5,46.9,60.4,63.4,71.7,72.0,72.9,73.4,73.6,74.0,76.2,81.9,83.9,90.8,111.4,121.8,128.8,137.1,138.2,140.4,144.1,149.3,149.4,151.6,151.8,152.7,153.1,154.4,155.4,155.5,156.8,156.8,156.8,156.8,156.9,156.9,157.1,170.4,187.2,190.6,192.9,193.8,195.1,239.9,240.8,241.2,241.4,241.9,243.0,245.3,246.3,247.5,248.2,248.2,248.4,250.3,251.6,257.9,264.1,264.4,265.1,265.8,265.9,276.1,280.4,293.4,294.8,295.0,296.5,305.3,305.9,306.1]},"wettest":{"year":2013,"cum":[0.1,6.4,19.8,26.4,30.4,35.0,56.0,62.8,73.4,81.2,88.5,91.8,99.2,115.3,135.0,148.2,150.8,159.6,172.8,176.4,180.6,186.6,186.7,206.8,224.2,224.3,224.7,226.3,227.0,230.4,231.8,237.8,240.0,240.8,241.9,243.9,252.8,260.2,261.8,267.8,290.2,319.3,319.8,324.6,327.2,377.4,417.6,423.5,456.2,463.3,475.5,506.9,564.5,567.5,570.0,578.8,580.2,581.9,582.6,599.8,638.4,673.3,702.7,702.9,707.1,711.3,714.8,715.3,715.7,716.5,719.0,720.1,721.2,731.8,739.2,740.1,740.9,750.0,756.2,756.2,756.9,757.9,760.9,764.5,770.1,771.4,775.1,776.0,776.2]}},"stale":false},"nek":{"name":"NE Karnataka: Kalaburagi-Bidar-Raichur","season":"sw","season_label":"SW monsoon 2026","season_start_md":[6,1],"confidence":0.8,"methodology_sources":["Kalaburagi is India's tur bowl (KA agriculture dept, ICRISAT tract studies)","three-district spread averages localized rain noise"],"season_to_date_mm":380.6,"normal_to_date_mm":461.6,"deviation_pct":-17.5,"rolling":{"d7":-40.2,"d14":-43.6,"d30":-10.6},"percentile":23.6,"persistence_30d":73.3,"dry_streak_days":5,"forecast_7d_mm":10.9,"normal_next7_mm":39.6,"forecast_trajectory":"deteriorating","days":["2026-06-01","2026-06-02","2026-06-03","2026-06-04","2026-06-05","2026-06-06","2026-06-07","2026-06-08","2026-06-09","2026-06-10","2026-06-11","2026-06-12","2026-06-13","2026-06-14","2026-06-15","2026-06-16","2026-06-17","2026-06-18","2026-06-19","2026-06-20","2026-06-21","2026-06-22","2026-06-23","2026-06-24","2026-06-25","2026-06-26","2026-06-27","2026-06-28","2026-06-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-01","2026-07-02","2026-07-03","2026-07-04","2026-07-05","2026-07-06","2026-07-07","2026-07-08","2026-07-09","2026-07-10","2026-07-11","2026-07-12","2026-07-13","2026-07-14","2026-07-15","2026-07-16","2026-07-17","2026-07-18","2026-07-19","2026-07-20","2026-07-21","2026-07-22","2026-07-23","2026-07-24","2026-07-25","2026-07-26","2026-07-27","2026-07-28","2026-07-29","2026-07-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-01","2026-08-02","2026-08-03","2026-08-04","2026-08-05","2026-08-06","2026-08-07","2026-08-08","2026-08-09","2026-08-10","2026-08-11","2026-08-12","2026-08-13","2026-08-14","2026-08-15","2026-08-16","2026-08-17","2026-08-18","2026-08-19","2026-08-20","2026-08-21","2026-08-22","2026-08-23","2026-08-24","2026-08-25","2026-08-26","2026-08-27","2026-08-28"],"cum":[0.1,1.3,2.1,4.4,5.2,6.4,14.8,20.3,22.1,22.1,22.1,22.3,22.5,22.5,22.6,22.6,22.6,22.9,23.0,23.2,23.4,27.2,31.6,35.0,40.6,44.4,48.2,63.2,66.7,69.0,74.0,80.1,89.5,104.2,110.1,113.0,116.2,118.8,121.1,121.2,121.2,121.2,121.2,121.2,124.0,124.7,137.5,143.9,157.3,179.1,185.8,192.7,193.6,194.6,196.9,200.2,207.5,219.0,238.5,253.1,258.4,260.6,265.0,286.1,299.2,307.5,311.0,313.8,318.0,318.8,321.3,324.5,331.7,335.3,338.4,340.7,342.3,344.2,351.6,353.8,354.3,355.5,359.6,370.1,374.2,376.1,378.0,378.3,380.6],"normal_cum":[1.5,4.5,7.5,10.3,17.5,27.9,33.5,36.5,40.5,45.8,52.1,57.1,62.7,68.1,73.3,76.2,79.1,83.7,89.2,93.3,96.6,101.8,108.6,112.5,116.4,120.0,124.0,129.1,138.3,142.4,145.9,152.7,156.3,159.7,164.0,168.5,175.4,182.8,188.7,194.2,199.5,204.3,209.7,214.1,220.3,225.8,231.6,237.2,243.5,248.5,253.0,258.7,264.4,270.0,275.6,280.2,286.6,293.7,302.6,308.4,313.8,319.5,326.2,334.3,340.2,347.1,352.1,355.9,360.1,365.8,371.0,376.1,380.1,383.9,386.8,390.6,396.6,400.1,402.9,407.8,414.5,419.6,424.8,430.2,437.7,444.5,450.5,456.3,461.6],"season_total_normal":626.7,"analogs":{"driest":{"year":1997,"cum":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.9,2.5,5.1,5.5,7.5,11.0,16.2,19.9,33.5,39.3,50.7,50.8,50.8,50.9,55.7,58.2,59.7,60.7,70.1,70.5,70.7,71.0,71.2,71.3,72.1,77.0,80.1,96.6,130.1,149.7,154.7,159.1,160.4,163.6,165.9,167.9,168.1,168.8,169.7,170.8,170.8,171.1,172.2,172.3,173.0,173.0,173.1,173.1,174.2,174.2,176.0,179.5,183.3,187.8,188.7,190.5,193.7,222.1,225.5,225.7,225.9,226.3,228.1,229.3,230.3,231.8,233.1,233.5,233.7,235.9,236.4,238.3,239.5,240.0,240.3,241.1,241.2,243.7,248.8,253.1,253.4,253.6,253.9,258.8,260.0,262.6]},"wettest":{"year":2020,"cum":[7.9,22.0,24.5,26.0,26.2,26.4,27.2,27.3,27.3,39.6,74.2,79.8,83.8,87.3,90.3,113.1,123.1,129.3,133.0,134.5,137.2,141.2,141.7,142.5,149.6,154.5,162.9,173.5,184.2,191.9,197.0,201.0,206.1,218.8,236.6,238.9,243.1,251.2,257.0,264.1,266.5,267.9,270.4,286.6,314.3,321.9,330.4,335.1,341.3,349.6,353.9,356.2,372.2,383.1,390.9,391.9,394.1,404.5,412.8,414.5,419.8,421.9,428.0,435.5,443.3,469.9,474.4,476.3,481.2,486.8,503.0,505.4,507.9,529.3,538.7,561.3,588.5,598.1,602.7,614.8,634.6,645.6,647.1,648.6,649.9,650.6,650.9,653.2,654.1]}},"stale":false}},"crops":{"onion":{"name":"Onion","note":"kharif crop + stored rabi stock; Nashik belt sets the national price tone","basins":[{"key":"nashik","name":"Nashik belt (MH)","deviation_pct":5.4,"percentile":62.5,"forecast_7d_mm":4.9,"season":"sw"},{"key":"kurnool","name":"Kurnool (AP)","deviation_pct":-32.5,"percentile":15.3,"forecast_7d_mm":11.7,"season":"sw"},{"key":"malwa","name":"Malwa: Indore-Ujjain-Dewas (MP)","deviation_pct":-14.0,"percentile":34.7,"forecast_7d_mm":72.5,"season":"sw"}],"prices":{"series":[{"date":"2026-08-24","median_modal":4200,"n_mandis":22},{"date":"2026-08-25","median_modal":3925,"n_mandis":9},{"date":"2026-08-26","median_modal":4100,"n_mandis":8},{"date":"2026-08-27","median_modal":3689,"n_mandis":12},{"date":"2026-08-28","median_modal":3349,"n_mandis":1}],"latest_date":"2026-08-28","latest_median":3349,"n_mandis":1,"dispersion_pct":null,"wow_pct":null,"d14_pct":null,"d30_pct":null,"mandis":[{"market":"Kurnool APMC","district":"Kurnool","state":"Andhra Pradesh","modal":3349}],"district_context":{"district":"Nashik","hist_percentile":96,"percentile_years":10,"vs_90d_baseline_pct":81.0,"basis":"nominal Rs/q, Nashik district-day medians, last 10 seasons","current":{"date":"2026-08-27","median":3800,"n":8}}},"stress":{"score":65,"label":"High","components":{"rainfall_severity":65.0,"rainfall_persistence":60.0,"historical_extremeness":69.4,"arrival_stress":null,"price_stress":null,"forecast_stress":66.0,"spatial_extent":66.7},"contributions":{"rainfall_severity":23.2,"rainfall_persistence":12.9,"historical_extremeness":14.9,"forecast_stress":9.4,"spatial_extent":4.8},"weights_used":{"rainfall_severity":0.357,"rainfall_persistence":0.214,"historical_extremeness":0.214,"forecast_stress":0.143,"spatial_extent":0.071},"missing":["arrival_stress","price_stress"]},"contradiction":{"pattern":"insufficient","classification":"insufficient_evidence","text":"Rainfall shows -32.5% season-to-date in the most-stressed basin, but the price panel is too shallow to assess whether this is translating into price pressure. Arrivals data is not yet available from a free source, so this check uses rainfall and price only."},"citation":"Kurnool (AP) rainfall is -32.5% vs the 1991-2020 normal season-to-date (ERA5 via Open-Meteo; 15th percentile of seasons since 1991). Onion median modal price is Rs 3349/quintal across 1 mandis on 2026-08-28 (Agmarknet via data.gov.in). Based on available evidence (arrivals data unavailable). Source: MonsoonMandi, retrieved 2026-08-28.","substitution_assessment":{"state":"localized","text":"Stress is localized: Kurnool (AP) (-32.5%), Malwa: Indore-Ujjain-Dewas (MP) (-14.0%) in deficit while Nashik belt (MH) sit near or above normal — less-stressed regions may partly offset, based on available evidence. Untracked buffers not assessed here: Gujarat (Bhavnagar) and stored rabi stock also buffer onion supply; not tracked.","basins_considered":3,"basins_stressed":2},"analogs":{"basin":"kurnool","basin_name":"Kurnool (AP)","district":"Kurnool","years":[{"year":2018,"similarity":39.7,"price_move_pct":0.0,"weeks_to_peak":0.3},{"year":2001,"similarity":35.1,"price_move_pct":null,"weeks_to_peak":null},{"year":1997,"similarity":33.1,"price_move_pct":null,"weeks_to_peak":null}],"summary":"In 0 of 1 comparable seasons with price data, Kurnool onion prices rose 10%+ within 12 weeks of this point in the season. Historical description, not a forecast."},"transmission":{"crop":"onion","basin":"nashik","district":"Nashik","estimated_lag_days":10,"window":[1,26],"confidence":"medium","sample_seasons":15,"onset_seasons":33}},"tomato":{"name":"Tomato","note":"short growing cycle - fastest rainfall-to-price transmission","basins":[{"key":"kolar","name":"Kolar (KA)","deviation_pct":-33.3,"percentile":15.3,"forecast_7d_mm":8.1,"season":"sw"},{"key":"chittoor","name":"Chittoor-Annamayya (AP)","deviation_pct":-10.2,"percentile":45.8,"forecast_7d_mm":21.4,"season":"sw"},{"key":"nashik","name":"Nashik belt (MH)","deviation_pct":5.4,"percentile":62.5,"forecast_7d_mm":4.9,"season":"sw"}],"prices":{"series":[{"date":"2026-08-24","median_modal":1200,"n_mandis":13},{"date":"2026-08-25","median_modal":1300,"n_mandis":13},{"date":"2026-08-26","median_modal":1500,"n_mandis":7},{"date":"2026-08-27","median_modal":1400,"n_mandis":10},{"date":"2026-08-28","median_modal":1500,"n_mandis":13}],"latest_date":"2026-08-28","latest_median":1500,"n_mandis":13,"dispersion_pct":20.0,"wow_pct":null,"d14_pct":null,"d30_pct":null,"mandis":[{"market":"Madanapalli APMC","district":"Annamayya","state":"Andhra Pradesh","modal":1700},{"market":"Guramkonda Sub-yard of AMC Valmikipuram","district":"Annamayya","state":"Andhra Pradesh","modal":1600},{"market":"Kalikiri APMC","district":"Annamayya","state":"Andhra Pradesh","modal":1600},{"market":"Valmikipuram APMC","district":"Annamayya","state":"Andhra Pradesh","modal":1600},{"market":"Punganur APMC","district":"Annamayya","state":"Andhra Pradesh","modal":1570},{"market":"B.Kothakota H/Q Angallu","district":"Annamayya","state":"Andhra Pradesh","modal":1500},{"market":"Mulakalacheruvu APMC","district":"Annamayya","state":"Andhra Pradesh","modal":1500},{"market":"Palamaner APMC","district":"Chittor","state":"Andhra Pradesh","modal":1500}],"district_context":{"district":"Kolar","hist_percentile":32,"percentile_years":10,"vs_90d_baseline_pct":-20.0,"basis":"nominal Rs/q, Kolar district-day medians, last 10 seasons","current":{"date":"2026-08-28","median":800,"n":2}}},"stress":{"score":70,"label":"High","components":{"rainfall_severity":66.6,"rainfall_persistence":66.7,"historical_extremeness":69.4,"arrival_stress":null,"price_stress":null,"forecast_stress":84.5,"spatial_extent":66.7},"contributions":{"rainfall_severity":23.8,"rainfall_persistence":14.3,"historical_extremeness":14.9,"forecast_stress":12.1,"spatial_extent":4.8},"weights_used":{"rainfall_severity":0.357,"rainfall_persistence":0.214,"historical_extremeness":0.214,"forecast_stress":0.143,"spatial_extent":0.071},"missing":["arrival_stress","price_stress"]},"contradiction":{"pattern":"insufficient","classification":"insufficient_evidence","text":"Rainfall shows -33.3% season-to-date in the most-stressed basin, but the price panel is too shallow to assess whether this is translating into price pressure. Arrivals data is not yet available from a free source, so this check uses rainfall and price only."},"citation":"Kolar (KA) rainfall is -33.3% vs the 1991-2020 normal season-to-date (ERA5 via Open-Meteo; 15th percentile of seasons since 1991). Tomato median modal price is Rs 1500/quintal across 13 mandis on 2026-08-28 (Agmarknet via data.gov.in). Based on available evidence (arrivals data unavailable). Source: MonsoonMandi, retrieved 2026-08-28.","substitution_assessment":{"state":"localized","text":"Stress is localized: Kolar (KA) (-33.3%), Chittoor-Annamayya (AP) (-10.2%) in deficit while Nashik belt (MH) sit near or above normal — less-stressed regions may partly offset, based on available evidence. Untracked buffers not assessed here: Madhya Pradesh and hill-state summer tomato are untracked buffers.","basins_considered":3,"basins_stressed":2},"analogs":{"basin":"kolar","basin_name":"Kolar (KA)","district":"Kolar","years":[{"year":2001,"similarity":42.2,"price_move_pct":null,"weeks_to_peak":null},{"year":2012,"similarity":40.6,"price_move_pct":6.2,"weeks_to_peak":10.1},{"year":2003,"similarity":40.2,"price_move_pct":null,"weeks_to_peak":null}],"summary":"In 0 of 1 comparable seasons with price data, Kolar tomato prices rose 10%+ within 12 weeks of this point in the season. Historical description, not a forecast."},"transmission":{"crop":"tomato","basin":"kolar","district":"Kolar","estimated_lag_days":4,"window":[1,10],"confidence":"high","sample_seasons":16,"onset_seasons":34}},"potato":{"name":"Potato","note":"storage crop: monsoon shifts cold-store release timing more than growth","basins":[{"key":"up_potato","name":"Agra-Farukhabad (UP)","deviation_pct":5.5,"percentile":59.7,"forecast_7d_mm":65.7,"season":"sw"},{"key":"hooghly","name":"Hooghly (WB)","deviation_pct":11.4,"percentile":62.5,"forecast_7d_mm":120.2,"season":"sw"}],"prices":{"series":[{"date":"2026-08-24","median_modal":550,"n_mandis":12},{"date":"2026-08-25","median_modal":550,"n_mandis":4},{"date":"2026-08-26","median_modal":550,"n_mandis":10},{"date":"2026-08-27","median_modal":680,"n_mandis":4},{"date":"2026-08-28","median_modal":550,"n_mandis":7}],"latest_date":"2026-08-28","latest_median":550,"n_mandis":7,"dispersion_pct":4.7,"wow_pct":null,"d14_pct":null,"d30_pct":null,"mandis":[{"market":"Pandua APMC","district":"Hooghly","state":"West Bengal","modal":700},{"market":"Farukhabad APMC","district":"Farukhabad","state":"Uttar Pradesh","modal":550},{"market":"Kamlaganj APMC","district":"Farukhabad","state":"Uttar Pradesh","modal":550},{"market":"Kayamganj APMC","district":"Farukhabad","state":"Uttar Pradesh","modal":550},{"market":"Mohamadabad APMC","district":"Farukhabad","state":"Uttar Pradesh","modal":550},{"market":"Agra APMC","district":"Agra","state":"Uttar Pradesh","modal":524},{"market":"Samsabad APMC","district":"Agra","state":"Uttar Pradesh","modal":403}],"district_context":{"district":"Agra","hist_percentile":14,"percentile_years":10,"vs_90d_baseline_pct":4.8,"basis":"nominal Rs/q, Agra district-day medians, last 10 seasons","current":{"date":"2026-08-28","median":524,"n":2}}},"stress":{"score":10,"label":"Minimal","components":{"rainfall_severity":0.0,"rainfall_persistence":46.7,"historical_extremeness":0.0,"arrival_stress":null,"price_stress":null,"forecast_stress":0.0,"spatial_extent":0.0},"contributions":{"rainfall_severity":0.0,"rainfall_persistence":10.0,"historical_extremeness":0.0,"forecast_stress":0.0,"spatial_extent":0.0},"weights_used":{"rainfall_severity":0.357,"rainfall_persistence":0.214,"historical_extremeness":0.214,"forecast_stress":0.143,"spatial_extent":0.071},"missing":["arrival_stress","price_stress"]},"contradiction":{"pattern":"insufficient","classification":"insufficient_evidence","text":"Rainfall shows 5.5% season-to-date in the most-stressed basin, but the price panel is too shallow to assess whether this is translating into price pressure. Arrivals data is not yet available from a free source, so this check uses rainfall and price only."},"citation":"Agra-Farukhabad (UP) rainfall is +5.5% vs the 1991-2020 normal season-to-date (ERA5 via Open-Meteo; 60th percentile of seasons since 1991). Potato median modal price is Rs 550/quintal across 7 mandis on 2026-08-28 (Agmarknet via data.gov.in). Based on available evidence (arrivals data unavailable). Source: MonsoonMandi, retrieved 2026-08-28.","substitution_assessment":{"state":"no_stress","text":"No tracked producing basin currently shows deficit stress. Untracked buffers not assessed here: cold-storage release nationwide is the dominant untracked buffer.","basins_considered":2,"basins_stressed":0},"analogs":{"basin":"up_potato","basin_name":"Agra-Farukhabad (UP)","district":"Agra","years":[{"year":2021,"similarity":13.5,"price_move_pct":47.8,"weeks_to_peak":10.1},{"year":2001,"similarity":13.0,"price_move_pct":null,"weeks_to_peak":null},{"year":1997,"similarity":11.0,"price_move_pct":null,"weeks_to_peak":null}],"summary":"In 1 of 1 comparable seasons with price data, Agra potato prices rose 10%+ within 12 weeks of this point in the season. Historical description, not a forecast."},"transmission":{"crop":"potato","basin":"up_potato","district":"Agra","estimated_lag_days":9,"window":[4,56],"confidence":"medium","sample_seasons":11,"onset_seasons":31}},"soyabean":{"name":"Soyabean","note":"kharif oilseed - sowing and pod-fill both rain-sensitive","basins":[{"key":"malwa","name":"Malwa: Indore-Ujjain-Dewas (MP)","deviation_pct":-14.0,"percentile":34.7,"forecast_7d_mm":72.5,"season":"sw"},{"key":"latur","name":"Latur (MH)","deviation_pct":-15.3,"percentile":29.2,"forecast_7d_mm":8.9,"season":"sw"}],"prices":{"series":[{"date":"2026-08-24","median_modal":6000,"n_mandis":21},{"date":"2026-08-25","median_modal":5691,"n_mandis":19},{"date":"2026-08-26","median_modal":5750,"n_mandis":2},{"date":"2026-08-27","median_modal":6000,"n_mandis":18},{"date":"2026-08-28","median_modal":4204,"n_mandis":1}],"latest_date":"2026-08-28","latest_median":4204,"n_mandis":1,"dispersion_pct":null,"wow_pct":null,"d14_pct":null,"d30_pct":null,"mandis":[{"market":"Indore APMC","district":"Indore","state":"Madhya Pradesh","modal":4204}],"district_context":{"district":"Indore","hist_percentile":59,"percentile_years":10,"vs_90d_baseline_pct":-38.8,"basis":"nominal Rs/q, Indore district-day medians, last 10 seasons","current":{"date":"2026-08-28","median":4204,"n":1}}},"stress":{"score":55,"label":"Moderate","components":{"rainfall_severity":30.6,"rainfall_persistence":66.7,"historical_extremeness":41.6,"arrival_stress":null,"price_stress":null,"forecast_stress":99.3,"spatial_extent":100.0},"contributions":{"rainfall_severity":10.9,"rainfall_persistence":14.3,"historical_extremeness":8.9,"forecast_stress":14.2,"spatial_extent":7.1},"weights_used":{"rainfall_severity":0.357,"rainfall_persistence":0.214,"historical_extremeness":0.214,"forecast_stress":0.143,"spatial_extent":0.071},"missing":["arrival_stress","price_stress"]},"contradiction":{"pattern":"insufficient","classification":"insufficient_evidence","text":"Rainfall shows -15.3% season-to-date in the most-stressed basin, but the price panel is too shallow to assess whether this is translating into price pressure. Arrivals data is not yet available from a free source, so this check uses rainfall and price only."},"citation":"Latur (MH) rainfall is -15.3% vs the 1991-2020 normal season-to-date (ERA5 via Open-Meteo; 29th percentile of seasons since 1991). Soyabean median modal price is Rs 4204/quintal across 1 mandis on 2026-08-28 (Agmarknet via data.gov.in). Based on available evidence (arrivals data unavailable). Source: MonsoonMandi, retrieved 2026-08-28.","substitution_assessment":{"state":"systemic","text":"All 2 tracked producing basins are in deficit — potential multi-basin (systemic) supply stress rather than a local shock. Untracked buffers not assessed here: Rajasthan tract and import parity (edible-oil complex) are untracked.","basins_considered":2,"basins_stressed":2},"analogs":{"basin":"latur","basin_name":"Latur (MH)","district":"Latur","years":[{"year":2025,"similarity":33.6,"price_move_pct":4.6,"weeks_to_peak":1.3},{"year":2023,"similarity":32.4,"price_move_pct":6.1,"weeks_to_peak":11.4},{"year":2019,"similarity":31.2,"price_move_pct":7.0,"weeks_to_peak":4.1}],"summary":"In 0 of 3 comparable seasons with price data, Latur soyabean prices rose 10%+ within 12 weeks of this point in the season. Historical description, not a forecast."},"transmission":{"crop":"soyabean","basin":"malwa","district":"Indore","estimated_lag_days":44,"window":[11,55],"confidence":"medium","sample_seasons":6,"onset_seasons":33}},"tur":{"name":"Tur / Arhar","note":"kharif pulse - long duration, sowing-window sensitive","basins":[{"key":"nek","name":"NE Karnataka: Kalaburagi-Bidar-Raichur","deviation_pct":-17.5,"percentile":23.6,"forecast_7d_mm":10.9,"season":"sw"},{"key":"latur","name":"Latur (MH)","deviation_pct":-15.3,"percentile":29.2,"forecast_7d_mm":8.9,"season":"sw"}],"prices":{"series":[{"date":"2026-08-24","median_modal":7553,"n_mandis":15},{"date":"2026-08-25","median_modal":7751,"n_mandis":19},{"date":"2026-08-27","median_modal":8000,"n_mandis":16},{"date":"2026-08-28","median_modal":7925,"n_mandis":5}],"latest_date":"2026-08-28","latest_median":7925,"n_mandis":5,"dispersion_pct":3.3,"wow_pct":null,"d14_pct":null,"d30_pct":null,"mandis":[{"market":"Lingasugur APMC","district":"Raichur","state":"Karnataka","modal":8200},{"market":"Raichur APMC","district":"Raichur","state":"Karnataka","modal":8159},{"market":"Sindhanur APMC","district":"Raichur","state":"Karnataka","modal":7925},{"market":"Manvi APMC","district":"Raichur","state":"Karnataka","modal":7900},{"market":"Sindhanur APMC","district":"Raichur","state":"Karnataka","modal":6000}],"district_context":{"district":"Kalaburagi","hist_percentile":75,"percentile_years":9,"vs_90d_baseline_pct":null,"basis":"nominal Rs/q, Kalaburagi district-day medians, last 10 seasons","current":{"date":"2026-08-27","median":8000,"n":3}}},"stress":{"score":60,"label":"High","components":{"rainfall_severity":35.0,"rainfall_persistence":73.3,"historical_extremeness":52.8,"arrival_stress":null,"price_stress":null,"forecast_stress":90.6,"spatial_extent":100.0},"contributions":{"rainfall_severity":12.5,"rainfall_persistence":15.7,"historical_extremeness":11.3,"forecast_stress":12.9,"spatial_extent":7.1},"weights_used":{"rainfall_severity":0.357,"rainfall_persistence":0.214,"historical_extremeness":0.214,"forecast_stress":0.143,"spatial_extent":0.071},"missing":["arrival_stress","price_stress"]},"contradiction":{"pattern":"insufficient","classification":"insufficient_evidence","text":"Rainfall shows -17.5% season-to-date in the most-stressed basin, but the price panel is too shallow to assess whether this is translating into price pressure. Arrivals data is not yet available from a free source, so this check uses rainfall and price only."},"citation":"NE Karnataka: Kalaburagi-Bidar-Raichur rainfall is -17.5% vs the 1991-2020 normal season-to-date (ERA5 via Open-Meteo; 24th percentile of seasons since 1991). Tur / Arhar median modal price is Rs 7925/quintal across 5 mandis on 2026-08-28 (Agmarknet via data.gov.in). Based on available evidence (arrivals data unavailable). Source: MonsoonMandi, retrieved 2026-08-28.","substitution_assessment":{"state":"systemic","text":"All 2 tracked producing basins are in deficit — potential multi-basin (systemic) supply stress rather than a local shock. Untracked buffers not assessed here: imports (Myanmar/East Africa) and buffer-stock releases are untracked.","basins_considered":2,"basins_stressed":2},"analogs":{"basin":"nek","basin_name":"NE Karnataka: Kalaburagi-Bidar-Raichur","district":"Kalaburagi","years":[{"year":2014,"similarity":39.6,"price_move_pct":1.4,"weeks_to_peak":10.1},{"year":1993,"similarity":39.0,"price_move_pct":null,"weeks_to_peak":null},{"year":2005,"similarity":38.4,"price_move_pct":null,"weeks_to_peak":null}],"summary":"In 0 of 1 comparable seasons with price data, Kalaburagi tur / arhar prices rose 10%+ within 12 weeks of this point in the season. Historical description, not a forecast."},"transmission":{"crop":"tur","basin":"nek","district":"Kalaburagi","estimated_lag_days":18,"window":[7,47],"confidence":"medium","sample_seasons":7,"onset_seasons":30}}},"events":[{"id":"onion-kurnool-shock-2026","crop":"onion","crop_name":"Onion","basin":"kurnool","basin_name":"Kurnool (AP)","start_date":"2026-08-26","status":"active","trigger_reasons":["season deviation -32.5% <= -25.0%","crop stress 65 >= 60 with basin deficit -32.5%"],"initial":{"date":"2026-08-26","deviation_pct":-29.7,"percentile":17.7,"stress":64,"price_wow_pct":null},"current":{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-32.5,"percentile":15.3,"stress":65,"price_median":3349,"price_wow_pct":null},"timeline":[{"date":"2026-08-26","deviation_pct":-29.7,"percentile":15.3,"stress":65,"price_median":4100,"price_wow_pct":null},{"date":"2026-08-27","deviation_pct":-32.2,"percentile":15.3,"stress":65,"price_median":3689,"price_wow_pct":null},{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-32.5,"percentile":15.3,"stress":65,"price_median":3349,"price_wow_pct":null}]},{"id":"onion-malwa-shock-2026","crop":"onion","crop_name":"Onion","basin":"malwa","basin_name":"Malwa: Indore-Ujjain-Dewas (MP)","start_date":"2026-08-26","status":"active","trigger_reasons":["crop stress 65 >= 60 with basin deficit -14.0%"],"initial":{"date":"2026-08-26","deviation_pct":-13.0,"percentile":40.3,"stress":64,"price_wow_pct":null},"current":{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-14.0,"percentile":34.7,"stress":65,"price_median":3349,"price_wow_pct":null},"timeline":[{"date":"2026-08-26","deviation_pct":-13.0,"percentile":34.7,"stress":65,"price_median":4100,"price_wow_pct":null},{"date":"2026-08-27","deviation_pct":-13.2,"percentile":34.7,"stress":65,"price_median":3689,"price_wow_pct":null},{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-14.0,"percentile":34.7,"stress":65,"price_median":3349,"price_wow_pct":null}]},{"id":"tomato-kolar-shock-2026","crop":"tomato","crop_name":"Tomato","basin":"kolar","basin_name":"Kolar (KA)","start_date":"2026-08-26","status":"active","trigger_reasons":["season deviation -33.3% <= -25.0%","crop stress 70 >= 60 with basin deficit -33.3%"],"initial":{"date":"2026-08-26","deviation_pct":-32.5,"percentile":17.7,"stress":68,"price_wow_pct":null},"current":{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-33.3,"percentile":15.3,"stress":70,"price_median":1500,"price_wow_pct":null},"timeline":[{"date":"2026-08-26","deviation_pct":-32.5,"percentile":15.3,"stress":69,"price_median":1500,"price_wow_pct":null},{"date":"2026-08-27","deviation_pct":-33.1,"percentile":15.3,"stress":69,"price_median":1400,"price_wow_pct":null},{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-33.3,"percentile":15.3,"stress":70,"price_median":1500,"price_wow_pct":null}]},{"id":"tomato-chittoor-shock-2026","crop":"tomato","crop_name":"Tomato","basin":"chittoor","basin_name":"Chittoor-Annamayya (AP)","season":"sw","season_label":"SW monsoon 2026","start_date":"2026-08-28","status":"active","trigger_reasons":["crop stress 70 >= 60 with basin deficit -10.2%"],"initial":{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-10.2,"percentile":45.8,"stress":70,"price_median":1500,"price_wow_pct":null},"current":{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-10.2,"percentile":45.8,"stress":70,"price_median":1500,"price_wow_pct":null},"timeline":[{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-10.2,"percentile":45.8,"stress":70,"price_median":1500,"price_wow_pct":null}]},{"id":"tur-nek-shock-2026","crop":"tur","crop_name":"Tur / Arhar","basin":"nek","basin_name":"NE Karnataka: Kalaburagi-Bidar-Raichur","season":"sw","season_label":"SW monsoon 2026","start_date":"2026-08-28","status":"active","trigger_reasons":["crop stress 60 >= 60 with basin deficit -17.5%"],"initial":{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-17.5,"percentile":23.6,"stress":60,"price_median":7925,"price_wow_pct":null},"current":{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-17.5,"percentile":23.6,"stress":60,"price_median":7925,"price_wow_pct":null},"timeline":[{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-17.5,"percentile":23.6,"stress":60,"price_median":7925,"price_wow_pct":null}]},{"id":"tur-latur-shock-2026","crop":"tur","crop_name":"Tur / Arhar","basin":"latur","basin_name":"Latur (MH)","season":"sw","season_label":"SW monsoon 2026","start_date":"2026-08-28","status":"active","trigger_reasons":["crop stress 60 >= 60 with basin deficit -15.3%"],"initial":{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-15.3,"percentile":29.2,"stress":60,"price_median":7925,"price_wow_pct":null},"current":{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-15.3,"percentile":29.2,"stress":60,"price_median":7925,"price_wow_pct":null},"timeline":[{"date":"2026-08-28","deviation_pct":-15.3,"percentile":29.2,"stress":60,"price_median":7925,"price_wow_pct":null}]}],"quality":{"generated_at":"2026-08-28T21:53:33","weather":{"status":"ok","basins_failed":[],"freshness_hours":0.0},"prices":{"status":"ok","queries":18,"queries_failed":[],"queries_skipped":0,"rows":27,"freshness_hours":21.9},"arrivals":{"status":"missing","note":"no free machine-readable source exists; never estimated"},"overall":"ok"}}